Mariners Zeitgeist

The Mariners are awful

2008-06-05T02:49:00.001-07:00

Like, comically bad. Is the Bill Bavasi era coming to a timely end?

Posting while at work

2007-09-07T13:53:00.001-07:00

Just wanted to inform my readers (who I imagine number approximately zero) that Dave Cameron's excellent Future Forty at USS Mariner has been updated. Check it out to find out how the Mariners' best prospects have been progressing this season, and to see which names you may or may not be seeing in the bigs soon.

And it's over

2007-09-05T19:29:00.000-07:00

See you next season.

2-9 Yankees, top of the 8th

2007-09-05T18:44:00.000-07:00

So the Mariners got blown out last night (no surprise there), and they're getting blown out tonight too. It will take a miracle in the 9th to save this game, and the season, for the Mariners.

One down, two to go

2007-09-03T13:30:00.000-07:00

The Mariners won the easy one today, beating the Yankees 7-1 in New York behind an excellent start from Felix Hernandez. They're now 1 game back in the Wild Card, and can take the lead with a sweep of the New York series. It's Horacio Ramirez vs. Chien Ming Wang tomorrow though, so a sweep is going to be next to impossible.

The ship is sinking

2007-09-01T19:03:00.001-07:00

Today's loss makes it 8 in a row, thanks in part to the late inning heroics of GM Bill Bavasi's "veteran relievers" (read: washed up hacks with giant bleached goatees). The team is now 6.5 games back in the division and 2 back in the Wild Card - with 28 games left to play, the division is basically over. The best hope for the Mariners to make the playoffs at this point is to win the Wild Card, and to do that they'll need to be at least 2 games better than the Yankees over the rest of the season. It just so happens that starting on Monday, the M's have 3 games in New York; by Wednesday we'll know whether the Mariners have a chance or if the ship really is going down.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

Getting the blog up to date

2007-08-31T22:42:00.001-07:00

As you may have noticed, most of the links on the right side of this page are out of date. I'll get around to updating them soon.

Three Years Later

2007-08-31T17:59:00.001-07:00

I haven't touched this blog in three years, and looking at it now, I've come to a few conclusions:

1) Some of my writing was pretty good. Some of it wasn't.
2) Sometimes I knew what I was talking about, and sometimes I didn't.
3) I am both a better writer and somewhat more knowledgeable now than I was then.

I'm thinking about reviving this blog, particularly after the recent 5 game losing streak (2 games of which I attended at Safeco) the Mariners have suffered. Reading USS Mariner over the last year has inspired me to put some of my own original thoughts on the web once again, so if anyone happens to browse to this blog, look out for more posts from me in the coming days.

Throwing in the towel

2004-10-14T01:23:00.000-07:00

In case you hadn't noticed, the Zeitgeist has died. Blame it on the workload here at WSU. To those of you who read, linked to, and talked about my Mariners blog, I am thankful. If nothing else, it showed me that writing can be fun, and that I might want to do it as a career some day. I'm sure no one has been checking my site daily for updates, but in case you have, you can stop now. They won't be coming. I may or may not revive this site when I have more time, but at this point I would deem that highly unlikely.

The more China changes, the more it stays the same

2004-07-08T18:34:00.000-07:00

This is just my second non-baseball related post. I reserve the right to go on as many political tangents as I see fit.

I had a friend tell me recently that Communism and Capitalism were roughly equal in their treatment of the masses. Maybe he should have read this article. Despite its flaws, I prefer the good old US of A.

Freddy Garcia Traded

2004-06-27T22:23:00.000-07:00

ESPN.com reports that the Mariners traded Freddy Garcia and Ben Davis to the White Sox today for young catcher Miguel Olivio, touted prospect Jeremy Reed, and minor league infielder Michael Morse.

Freddy Garcia joins a White Sox team that is managed by his close friend Ozzie Guillen, and should boost the Sox in their push for the AL Central crown. Bill Bavasi also managed to get another team to take Ben Davis, which in itself is a great move. What the Mariners got in return for Garcia is very telling of the direction Bill Bavasi is moving in now. This trade was geared for future improvement. Each of the players received in return for Garcia (and Davis, but losing him is almost like gaining a player) are promising young players (to varying degrees) who probably won't make the Mariners better now, but will likely improve the team down the road. On the other hand, we really don't know how good these players are. Jeremy Reed is, according to one expert, "like a young Rafael Palmeiro," although his leadoff numbers have been good in the minors as well. Reed was one of the White Sox's top prospects, and will be ready to produce in the majors soon. Miguel Olivio, who is 25 years old, is having a good 2004 season, with a .270 BA and 7 home runs along with adequate duty behind the plate. Michael Morse is a somewhat iffy shortstop/maybe third base prospect who has yet to learn to hit consistently, but may be major league ready in a year or two.

But did the Mariners get enough in return for Garcia? They did get a top prospect who may on his own replace Garcia's value to the team, a young catcher who can help the Mariners immediately, and another prospect who may become a productive infielder down the road. It is hard to say whether the Mariners got equal value in return for Freddy Garcia, but if Jeremy Reed turns out to be what many think he will, we may all look back at this trade as the one that made the Mariners' future bright again for years to come.

The sad part of this trade is that Freddy Garcia will no longer be a Mariner. He said after he heard the news that he was sad to be leaving the Mariners, and I think Mariners fans are sad to see him go. But that is the business of baseball. If we want a good team again, sacrifices need to be made, and I think (and hope) that Bill Bavasi recognizes this and will not hesitate to make more moves that improve the Mariners now and down the road.

The Mariners' downturn and the decline of the Blogosphere

2004-06-24T22:41:00.000-07:00

Apparantly mine isn't the only blog that has been neglected as a direct result of the poor performance of the Mariners this season. So I here resolve to make at least one post every two days for the next two weeks. Hopefully that will get me back into regular posting mode. As a fan it is so difficult to watch the Mariners lose, let alone write about it. So starting tomorrow, look for frequent updates here at Mariners Zeitgeist.

Japanese players and the Hall of Fame

2004-06-08T09:17:00.000-07:00

Have you ever looked at Satchel Paige's career numbers in the Majors? If not, cruise over to BaseballReference.com and check out his stats. Satchel Paige was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1971, just six years after the end of his playing career. Naturally, you would expect a first ballot Hall of Famer to have put up some incredible career numbers. And Paige most certainly did. But look at his career numbers in the Majors. Just 476 innings pitched, 290 strikeouts, a career ERA of 3.29, and 28 wins (against 31 losses). Obviously Satchel Paige didn't get into the Hall of Fame on his merits as a Major league pitcher. Rather, what he did in the Negro Leagues and on various barnstorming tours made him probably one of the most gifted pitchers to ever toss a ball. Some former Negro League players estimate that Paige tallied hundreds of wins during his career - I even heard a claim that he had over 900 wins. He had an overpowering fastball, and a whole arsenal of improvised pitches that no one has ever been able to replicate. There were times when he would start and finish both games of a double header, and according to former teammates he even once recorded wins in three games in a single day. Satchel Paige was arguably the most dominant pitcher in the world in his prime; white, black, or any other skin shade in between.

So what is the point here? Yeah, Satchel Paige was a great player, we all know that. I point this out because Satchel Paige was inducted into the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame based almost entirely on his merit as a player in the Negro Leagues. But this raises an interesting question. If Negro League greats have been inducted into the Hall of Fame based on their Negro League careers, should we consider the accomplishments of Japanese players during their time playing in Japan?

The key difference between the two is that Negro League players never had a chance to play in the Majors until Branch Rickey made Jackie Robinson a historical icon, while Japanese players have never been excluded from the Majors based on their race. Or have they? Was Saddaharu Oh good enough to play in the Majors? Are Ichiro Suzuki, Kaz Matsui, Hideki Matsui, Kaz Sasaki, Hideo Nomo, and Shigetoshi Hasegawa (and others) the first Japanese players to be good enough to play in the Majors? Probably not. Japan has been producing great baseball talent for many years now, and only recently have Major league scouts caught on. I don't think this is really due to racial discrimination. Rather, it is more likely that Major league teams just didn't realize how good Japanese players really were. But should the reason for exclusion matter? Satchel Paige isn't in the Hall because he was discriminated against. He is in because he was a great player. If Japanese players show greatness in the Majors, shouldn't we consider their Japanese playing careers along with their careers in the Majors when deciding whether or not they belong in the Hall of Fame? We did with the greats from the Negro Leagues. And while the reasons for the exclusion of African American and Japanese players are different, if the task of inducting players into the Hall of Fame is to honor the greatest baseball players, the reason for a player's exclusion from the Majors should not matter.

Thus I think we ought to consider a Japanese player's playing career in Japan when determining whether he should be in the Hall of Fame. Of course his accomplishments should be tempered with the knowledge that while very good, the Japanese leagues are not quite on the level of the Major Leagues. But I think it is only fair, based on the purpose of the Hall of Fame and the precedent set in the induction of Satchel Paige, among others, that we consider a Japanese player's pre-Major league career in deciding whether he belongs in the Hall of Fame.

But does it ultimately matter? Are any of the Japanese players currently playing in the Majors worthy of the Hall of Fame? Let's look at Ichiro Suzuki's career stats to find out.

In eight seasons with the Orix Blue Wave, Ichiro compiled 1278 hits, 658 runs scored, 199 stolen bases, a career .353 batting average, .421 on base percentage, and a .943 OPS. If we include those stats with his production in the majors, we get a line after approximately 11.5 seasons that looks like this:

Hits: 2024
Runs: 1040
Steals: 334
Batting Average: .344
(I couldn't do OBP or OPS because I can't find any detailed stats from Ichiro's career in Japan)

Those are some pretty healthy 11 season numbers. For comparison, let's compare these numbers to the eleventh season of two players who are either bound for the Hall of Fame or would be if not for some errors in judgement: Pete Rose and Rickey Henderson.

*Thanks to the Lee Sinis' indespensible Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia, it took about 4.79 seconds to accumulate the below stats. If you would like to purchase a copy, click here.

Pete Rose (1963-1974)

Hits: 2337
Runs: 1107
Steals: 97
Avg: .309
OBP: .376
OPS: .808

Rickey Henderson (1979-1990)

Hits: 1762
Runs: 1290
Steals: 938 (WOW!)
Avg: .293
OBP: .403
OPS: .844

So Ichiro compares pretty favorably to the two Hall of Fame-caliber players whose playing styles most emulated his. Also keep in mind that Ichiro played just 981 games during his eight seasons in Japan, due to a schedule that is thirty games shorter than in the Majors, whereas Rickey Henderson played 1182 games and Pete Rose played 1383 during their first eight seasons. Furthermore, Ichiro is a far better defensive player than either Henderson or Rose were during their careers. In fact, Ichiro is becoming one of the best right fielders ever, and I doubt anyone ever said that about Rickey Henderson or Pete Rose (who were both good, but not great).

Does all of this mean that Ichiro belongs in the Hall of Fame? He still has a lot of baseball left in him, probably ten years or more. We will have to wait and see how the rest of Ichiro's career unfolds, but of this I am certain: that the entire playing careers of Japanese players should be considered in deciding whether they belong in the Hall of Fame, and that if Ichiro's playing career in Japan is considered, it will be very difficult to exclude him if he continues his current level of play.

Playing Bill Bavasi

2004-05-24T20:10:00.000-07:00

You know, Howard Lincoln really ought to fire Bill Bavasi, post haste, and make me the GM of the Seattle Mariners. Why, you ask? Because I've got answers to what ails the Mariners.

Yes that's right, I have a fool proof plan to return the Mariners to contention. It may not be a popular plan. It may not be a wise or even coherent plan. But I have a plan, and I think that gives me a leg up on the M's management.

Part one of the plan is to set a deadline. The All Star break would be a pretty good one. Give the current team until the All Star break to turn the ship around. My plan is not a rash or quick action plan; patience is the name of the game here. We don't want to dismantle the team prematurely while it still has plenty of gas in the tank. If by the All Star break the Mariners have not begun winning more games than they lose, the "rebuilding" process should begin.

Part two of the plan is the beginning of my rebuilding program. There should be exactly three guys who are absolutely off limits for trades: Ichiro, Joel Pineiro, and Rafael Soriano. Everyone else, to varying degrees, is fair game. The primary goal is to get younger and more athletic. Speed and power baby. And who embodies a good mix of speed, power, youth, and athleticism more than anyone else in the Majors today? If you guessed Carlos Beltran, you would be correct. GO GET CARLOS BELTRAN. I heard recent rumors that a convoluted trade sending Freddy Garcia to Boston for Johnny Damon and BK Kim might be in the works. Boston was rumored to have agreed to turn around and ship Garcia to Kansas City for Carlos Beltran. Why let the Red Sox get any love? Rather, if possible a Garcia-for-Beltran deal would be perfect. Granted, I don't really know if that is feasible, but it at least gives you an idea of what Beltran is worth. After all, under my plan Carlos Beltran will be the centerpiece of the new Mariners.

If a Carlos Beltran trade doesn't work out, the White Sox are known to covet the services of Freddy Garcia. Freddy Garcia for Magglio Ordonez? Sounds reasonable to me.

The reason we can afford to give up Freddy Garcia is because we have an absolute logjam of great pitching talent in the minors. This leads perfectly into the third part of the plan: use the second half of the 2004 season to get the talented young players down in the minors some major league experience. There will be a changing of the guard soon, and guys like Travis Blackley, JJ Putz, et al., will only be better in the coming seasons if they get some experience now. For that matter, call up guys like Jamal Strong, Bucky Jacobson, and Justin Leone too. We can't get every position player via trade after all.

Part four of the plan: liquidation. This is the disassembly step. There are plenty of potential pennant contenders who would love to overspend on guys like John Olerud, Bret Boone, Randy Winn, Ryan Franklin, among others. So let them. Heartbreaking as I know it will be to see those guys playing on other teams, we have the future of the Mariners at heart here. It's called tough love. Suck it up and do business. The primary goal here is of course to get a) younger and b) more athletic. There are plenty of young, talented players out there to be had at bargain prices. Find them and acquire them. I admit this will probably be the hardest part of the plan, but it is also one of the most pivotal.

The first four steps will probably take all of the rest of the 2004 season and most of the ensuing offseason. By Spring Training 2005 the Mariners should be a very different team. There should be a new star player, a retooled starting rotation and lineup, and a slightly tweaked bullpen. The expectations for the 2005 season should not be very high. A .500 record would be great, but we should be prepared to accept much worse. Just remember, in another year or two this team will be the powerhouse of the American League. Once the pieces are in place, we hand the ship over to Bob Melvin/Bryan Price and let them do their magic. Like I said it will take some time to right the ship. But the wait will be worth it. Believe it.

Will my plan be implemented by the M's management? Almost certainly not. Elements of it will, yes, but most of it will be ignored. The Mariners are known to covet Carlos Beltran, but more than likely Bill Bavasi will overpay for him, stick him in the lineup, and expect that to cure the Mariners' woes. But it won't. The only way to make this team good again is to completely rebuild it. I can only hope Bill Bavasi will see the light.

Too bad I didn't get to watch

2004-05-18T23:30:00.000-07:00

In case you've been living under a rock and haven't heard yet, Randy Johnson pitched a perfect game tonight against the Braves. Johnson's was just the 17th regular season perfect game in baseball history. Randy Johnson is also the oldest pitcher to ever throw a perfect game, at 40 years old. Incredible.

I figured Johnson's perfect game would be a good excuse to post about my absence from the Blogosphere. I promise I will start posting more regularly soon. I have tons of stuff brewing in the think tank, I just need time to make it coherent.

Times have changed

2004-05-11T22:23:00.000-07:00

It was the bottom of the eighth inning in today's game against the Twins, and the Mariners were up four runs. Four run lead, two innings left to play: I'm thinking this game is already over. Alas, it would have been a year or two ago. But not now, not these Mariners.

Shigetoshi Hasegawa comes into the game, and I'm thinking this will be a good, relatively safe opportunity for him to mop up some innings and gain some confidence after a shaky start to the season. Christian Guzman singles to lead off, but that's no big deal. Shiggy will buckle down and get some outs. Then Doug Mientkiewicz singles to right. Still no outs. Okay, maybe Hasegawa will give up a couple of runs. But the M's have a four run lead. No way they can blow it.

Hasegawa then walks Michael Cuddyer, and the bases are full with no outs. I'm starting to get nervous now. Next up is Torii Hunter, and he walks to bring Guzman home. But it's still 6-3 Mariners. Mike Myers comes in to face Jacque Jones, and I'm feeling alright about this. Myers can get out of this jam. But then the lefty drills Jones in the back of the thigh with his first pitch. So another run comes in, and it's 6-4 Mariners. Still no outs.

After delivering one pitch, Mike Myers is out and J.J. Putz is in. This guy has been great so far, he ought to mow down the Twinkies. Lew Ford flies out, and Cuddyer scores, bringing the score to 6-5. But at least we have an out now. Jose Offerman comes in and flies out. Two outs now, and it looks like the M's are going to keep the lead. Luis Rivas comes up, and he brings Michael Ryan home on a single to left. The score is now tied at 6-6. I am so thoroughly pissed that I change the channel and refuse to watch. It isn't that I don't want to support the Mariners, but I have a hard time watching when things are going badly. One or two years ago, a 6-2 lead in the eighth inning against the Twins would have meant certain victory. But nowadays that means the Mariners have about a 50/50 chance of pulling out a win. Isn't that dismal?

By the way, the Twins went on to win in the eleventh inning. Heartbreak.

No, the Zeitgeist isn't dead

2004-05-11T15:13:00.000-07:00

I haven't updated at all since my trip to Pullman, primarily because my workload at school has increased dramatically. I'll try to do another running commentary some time this week, and then I should be able to get back to regular posting soon. I just want to make sure everyone knows that I haven't disappeared and that the Zeitgeist is still alive and well...just dormant, for the time being.

Sorry about acute lack of updates

2004-05-04T13:08:00.000-07:00

Midterms are killer.

I'm really gone this time

2004-04-24T07:49:00.000-07:00

No more Zeitgeist until tuesday. If anyone in the blogosphere goes to Washington State University, I'm going to be up there for three days registering for fall classes. Too bad it takes seven hours to drive to Pullman.

I deleted the ninth inning!

2004-04-23T22:02:00.000-07:00

I forgot to post and publish my ninth inning commentary before I wrote my post game notes, and accidentally deleted it. Believe me, it was good. CRAP! Sorry about that.

That was interesting

2004-04-23T21:56:00.000-07:00

That was pretty fun, doing a running commentary. I notice that it has taken up most of the space on my blog's front page though, and it would probably be difficult to track given the format. If I'm going to do this again, I need to think of a different way of doing it. I hope the few of you who read my commentary enjoyed it. I sure did.

I knew I would miss the resumption

2004-04-23T21:41:00.000-07:00

Iron Chef America was too good to miss. Oh well, I didn't miss too much of the game.

Mike Myers is pitching now, facing Hank Blalock. Has he always mixed in overhand and 3/4 arm angle pitches? I thought he was strictly a submarine guy. Maybe Blalock can ponder that on his way back to the dugout, as he just flied out to center.

Now Bob Melvin brings in Shigetoshi Hasegawa to face Alfonso Soriano. The rain delay has driven most of the crowd home, and the stadium is pretty quiet. Soriano grounds out to second, inning over. There must be less than a hundred people left at the game. And they've all moved behind home plate.

Cycle?

2004-04-23T20:44:00.000-07:00

I just realized Scott Spiezio needs just a double to hit for the cycle. If a couple of guys reach base in front of him Spiezio may get a chance in the 9th.

Eighth Inning: Lets score some runs guys

2004-04-23T20:13:00.000-07:00

Ron Mahay comes in to face Ben Davis in the top of the 8th. Ben Davis puts a charge into the 2-2 pitch, but Kevin Mench catches it on the warning track.

Randy Winn steps up to the plate. After two balls Mahay throws a strike, and for some reason I find the umpire's "Strike!" funny. It sounds more like "RAH!". Randy Winn flies out. Two outs.

The Big Ichie steps up. Doesn't he look cool with that intimidating glare? Ichiro promptly works a 3-1 count, and walks on the next pitch. We need baserunners.

Scott Spiezio displays a good eye, going up 2-0. He pulls a line drive foul for strike one. It amazes me that Barry Bonds can keep pitches like that one fair. The 2-1 is low, ball three. Spiezio bangs the next one hard to left, and its gone for a home run. Score now 7-9.

Spiezio yet again comes through for the M's. I hope he can keep it up. His season average is now up to .379, and while I know that won't last forever, I hope we can get .290, 20 HRs and 90 RBI out of him. That maybe asking too much though. We'll see.

Uh oh, Jeff Nelson is coming into the game now. I hope Bret Boone will line one right back at the mound here.

The first pitch is a strike right down the middle. The 0-1 is a frisbee slider way outside for ball one. I don't know why so many batters fall for that pitch. That's all Nelson throws, inside fastballs and then outside sliders trying to get hitters to chase. Bret Boone knows Nelson's schtick though, and works a walk .

Bret Boone steals second unopposed. That may go down as defensive indifference. Yep, it does. Count is now 2-1 on Edgar. It's amazing how often he gets ahead in the count. Edgar lines one into left, and Bret Boone scores. Good thing he went to second. Edgar turns it into a double, but just barely. Luckily the throw was wide.

Quinton McCracken is in for the injured Raul Ibanez. Willie Bloomquist comes in to run for Edgar. I guess with Q batting this is necessary, as McCracken won't be knocking any back to the fence. I question pulling Edgar in the 8th though, they may get back to him again in the 9th or 10th. Uh oh, it's raining now. I hope they don't call this came, because then the Rangers will win. Let's hurry up and get this game tied.

McCracken works a 2-2 count, and then walks. Jeff Nelson can never get that outside fastball in the zone against lefties. Okay, not never, but he has trouble. I guess Buck Showalter is reading my mind, because Nelson gets yanked. Okay, probably not.

Remember "2 Outs, So What?" from 2001? We've got a bit of that going now. The rain is pretty hard, but the umpires want to get this game finished and let it continue. Rich Aurilia steps up to the plate. The 2-1 is low but Aurilia chases it and looks pretty bad doing it. Come on, we need to tie it now before they call the game. Dammit, Aurila strikes out. Hopefully the rain will stop.

Bottom of the 8th:

Ron Villone is still in the game, and quickly gets the first batter to ground out. The rain is heavy, and I can hear the lightening on the ballpark microphones.

Villone goes 3-1 on Michael Young. Not looking good. Villone makes a dangerous pitch high in the zone, but Young pops it foul. Young gets lucky and rolls a breaking ball to third, and despite a valiant effort Scott Spiezio can't make the play. That was a real tough one, especially with the water on the field.

Crap, the umpires have called another rain delay. The last one only lasted 35 minutes, so maybe this one will pass quickly. I'm going to flip it over to Food Network, I hope I don't miss the resumption of the game. Emeril is having a show on gourmet pizza, and I can't miss it.

Seventh inning: Hope Springs Eternal?

2004-04-23T19:40:00.000-07:00

After Scott Spiezio grounded out to lead off and the Rangers made a pitching change, Bret Boone crushed a home run to right center. The score is now 4-7 Rangers.

The first pitch to Edgar is way up and in...retaliation? Edgar can't get his revenge though, as he flied out to left. He's now 0-4, and the ole' batting average is taking a beating.

Raul Ibanez steps up and does what Edgar couldn't, with a line drive right back up the middle. I don't know why, but when Raul steps up to the plate I feel confident that good things are going to happen.

Rich Aurilia is next up. He promptly pulls one to deep left and Dellucci can't get to it, scoring Raul Ibanez. I like this batting order, as long as Aurilia is hitting well. Fifth in the order suits Raul Ibanez well, and he should get plenty of RBI opportunities with Spiezio/Edgar/Boone hitting in front of him. BoMel might want to bump up John Olerud if he ever gets into a groove.

The Rangers have made a pitching change. Ron Mahay is now in the game to face Olerud. Dang, nice backdoor curve for strike one. Olerud beats another curve into the dirt and grounds out to end the top of the inning.

The Mariners have left 16 RUNNERS on base so far.

Bottom of the 7th: Kevin Jarvis comes in to relieve Joel Pineiro.

Why? Why has Bob Melvin fallen in love with Kevin Jarvis? This game is still very winnable, the M's are only down two runs. They don't need a mop up guy at this point. I hate to see Jarvis come in the game.

What do you know, Hank Blalock leads off with a single. Figures.

Great, and Alfonso Soriano promptly follows with another base hit. Luckily it's to left, so Blalock doesn't score. Runners on second and third, no outs.

That was a short appearance. Jarvis doesn't even record an out before Melvin brings Ron Villone in the game.

Ron Villone does the job against Brad Fullmer, getting the ex-Angel to pop up. First pitch was way up and in, but Villone makes a good pitch to jam Fullmer to end the at bat.

Dave Dellucci come up to face Villone. First pitch is high, and Villone still hasn't thrown a pitch down in the strike zone. Now I'm nervous. Dellucci catches another high pitch and scortches it right to John Olerud. Villone caught a major break there.

Bob Melvin decides to walk Kevin Mensch with first base open, electing to have Villone face Laynce Nix. First pitch is way up and in again. Second pitch is high and in, Nix fouls it back. Finally Villone gets one down in the zone, but for a ball. Ball three is way outside, and now it's not looking good with the sacks full. Nix swings at an inside fastball and misses. Full count, two outs, bases loaded. Nix flares one to left, it drops in, and two runs score. What a wonderful bullpen we have.

Great, now Villone throws a wild pitch, and another run scores. That pitch was way above Ben Davis. Ball two bounces off the dirt and almost gets past Davis again. Amazingly Ron Villone is able to strike out Gerald Laird, and what looked like a momentum shift has been squashed by the Jarvis/Villone tandem.

Okay, so I lied

2004-04-23T19:29:00.000-07:00

I won't be leaving until tomorrow afternoon, but when I posted about my departure I figured I wouldn't have anything else worth talking about before I left. But I was wrong.

I'm going to do a kind of running commentary of the Mariners vs. Rangers game that is currently in the sixth inning. Enjoy.

The innings I missed (1-6): The more things change, the more they stay the same

If you don't have access to cable tv or a radio, the Gameday feature on SeattleMariners.com is a great way to follow the game. They provide full stats, play-by-play, and even a strike zone chart that shows where each pitch lands. I've currently got that cooking on my laptop while also watching the game on FSN.

At least Bob Melvin has his best lineup on the field tonight. Okay, so Ben Davis isn't the first string catcher, but at least the rest of the "A" lineup is playing. Maybe Melvin read my post yesterday...okay, probably not.

So far Joel Pineiro has been terrible, giving up seven earned runs in six innings of work. He did strike out six Rangers, but seven runs in six innings is never good.

Scott Spiezio continues to be this team's All Star, with two hits and an RBI in the first six frames. Ichiro is hitting well, but he has left four men on base. Not good.

Out of town for a while

2004-04-23T16:03:00.000-07:00

I will be gone registering for fall classes at WSU until Tuesday. I'll have internet access on Sunday and Monday, but I likely won't have time to post anything, so don't count on any updates until at least next week.

A rare criticism of Bob Melvin

2004-04-22T18:21:00.000-07:00

Today's loss to the Athletics was quite telling of a trend I have noticed throughout the young season. In the 8-2 loss, Jolbert Cabrera and Willie Bloomquist started while John Olerud and Bret Boone sat on the bench. The two went a combined 1-7 at the plate, knocking in one run while striking out once and leaving four men on base.

The Mariners have run their best lineup out on the field exactly once all season. That's right, only one game this season has featured Ichiro, Randy Winn, Bret Boone, Edgar Martinez, John Olerud, Scott Spiezio, Raul Ibanez, Rich Aurilia, and Dan Wilson playing at the same time. Oh, and by the way, they won that game. I can think of only one logical explanation for this: that Bob Melvin is trying to rest his best players and keep them fresh. But what good is having fresh players down the stretch if the games they play don't matter because the team is out of playoff contention?

A fresh and spry Ichiro batting .350 in September won't do much for the Mariners if the team is 69-83 with ten games left to play. Is Melvin trying to avoid a repeat of last season's second half meltdown? If so, I would like to bring it to his attention that the first half record counts in the standings too. The Mariners won't challenge 90 wins if Jolbert Cabrera and Quinton McCracken are playing every day. No major league team (except the Yankees) can be successful when its best players aren't on the field every day, and the Mariners are no exception.

I can understand giving guys a rest, but this is getting a bit out of hand. The "A" lineup really ought to be starting at least 50% of the games, if not more, but the Mariners are currently running a rate of slightly more than 6%. Do the Yankees and Red Sox put out their best lineup 6% of the time? I think not.

No, this isn't the only reason why the Mariners are currently 6-10 at the bottom of the AL West. The pitching hasn't been great (although Freddy Garcia has been stellar), and Melvin has shown an unusual affinity for using the pitching staff's bottom feeders in tough situations. Hopefully Rafael Soriano's return to the club will help alleviate some of the bullpen woes, and Jamie Moyer/Gil Meche can find their grooves. But none of those things will help send the Mariners to the playoffs if Bob Melvin won't use the players they spent good money on to make the playoffs a real possibility.

Did you know?

2004-04-22T12:48:00.000-07:00

That Barry Bonds hasn't had a sub-1.000 OPS season since 1991?

That Bonds has had exactly one sub-.400 OBP season (1999) in the last 14 seasons?

That Bonds had more walks than hits in each of the last three seasons?

Those are some incredible facts that I had to share. Many people don't like Barry Bonds. Some even think he is (or was) taking steroids. But despite your personal feelings about the guy, he is still an incredible baseball player. When I look at his career numbers, across the board, I am simply amazed. Can you believe that every time Barry Bonds steps up to the plate, he is more likely to reach base than to make an out (.500+ OBP in each of last three seasons)? That is absolutely unheard of. I don't mean to make Bonds out as a saint, but judged only on his accomplishments on the field, I am beginning to believe Barry Bonds is the best player to ever play the game.

Tough loss

2004-04-21T22:35:00.000-07:00

Tonight's game against the Athletics was a tough one to lose. The Mariners were down early, then roared back late only to have Kevin Jarvis, et al. blow it. I guess the 'streak' had to end some time.

'Mariners Weekly' imposter

2004-04-21T22:13:00.000-07:00

I see someone has been posting a "Mariners Weekly" thing on the Seattle Mariners Top MLB Forums. In case you're wondering, that's not me.

Name change, slight format change

2004-04-21T21:38:00.000-07:00

After weeks of pondering, I've finally decided to change the name of my blog. Welcome to the new Mariners Zeitgeist. The term 'Zeitgeist' is German, and translates as 'spirit of the time.' Thus, in my blog I hope to capture the 'spirit' of what is going on in the world of the Seattle Mariners. Along with the name change, I've also updated the header to a more Mariners-themed decor.

To everyone who have links to my site: I think I emailed everyone who has a link to my site, but if I didn't get to you and you have a link to MarinersWeekly I would appreciate it if you could update your link to reflect the recent change.

So I hope everyone likes the new Mariners Zeitgeist. I will be posting the same sort of stuff as I always have, but now my site lacks the tacky old name. I hope you'll continue reading, and more importantly continue supporting the Mariners.

The long awaited turnaround arrives

2004-04-21T13:35:00.000-07:00

So apparently the Tigers didn't move to Seattle and rename themselves the Mariners. The M's have now won four straight, and while things were looking very scary there for a while, I think the Mariners have finally settled into regular season form. I don't know how to explain the dive they took - they looked great in spring training - but with some lingering minor concerns, I think it's safe again to say (because it wasn't for a few weeks) that the Mariners will win somewhere between 85 and 95 games, and maybe more.

I hope everyone got a chance to watch the last two games against Oakland. Both were very exciting, wire to wire. Raul Ibanez seems to like the right field bleachers, as he has deposited three balls in the last two games over the right field fence. We heard in the offseason that Ibanez matches perfectly with the dimensions of Safeco, and apparently there is some truth to that.

Let's hope Freddy Garcia really has returned to his dominant form. He looks great, and I hope he can keep it going. The rest of the rotation, aside from steady Ryan Franklin, has struggled. Right now I don't think that will continue for long, but who knows? Jamie Moyer is getting pretty old. Pitching in general is a concern right now, bullpen and starting rotation, but it has gotten better lately.

It is too early to make judgements, but I'm beginning to worry about Ichiro. The excuse used to be that his slumps were due to fatigue, but that can't possibly be the reason for his sub-par (for Ichiro standards) performance during the first month of the season. Again, it's too early for judgement, but I'm concerned nonetheless.

As for the new additions, things seem to be panning out pretty well. Raul Ibanez and Scott Spiezio have been great, and Rich Aurilia, while slowing down a bit in the last week, has been pretty good as well. Eddie Guardado has been great, and with the re-addition of Rafael Soriano, who was sent down to the minors for some strengthening work after having missed most of Spring Training, the bullpen will be back to full strength. Ron Villone and Mike Myers have pitched pretty well, and I don't think Shigetoshi Hasegawa will keep that 6.00+ ERA for very long.

As for the offense, the Mariners have been alright, neither good nor bad. Bret Boone has been pretty good, especially in his power numbers, but many M's are not off to great starts. Randy Winn and John Olerud have been especially ineffective, although Ichiro isn't performing at his usual level either. The bench has been pretty good, but I doubt it will be much of a factor, either positive or negative, in deciding how the 2004 campaign turns out.

So I guess that was an overview of what I would have been writing if I had been more attentive to my blog in the last week or so. Now, as always, I have papers to write...

There's a good excuse, really!

2004-04-19T19:50:00.000-07:00

I swear there is a perfectly logical explaination for why I haven't been blogging lately. Let's just say it's school related...

I noticed an interesting irregularity today. The Mariners team page on ESPN.com reports that Seattle's record as of today (4/19) is 6-6, while SeattleMariners.com reports that their record is 4-8. I could have sworn they were 4-8, but now I'm beginning to doubt myself. In case you want proof, I have screen shots of both pages.

And the fans rejoiced! Hallelujah!

2004-04-11T17:40:00.000-07:00

Finally. After five consecutive, frustrating, heart breaking, unbearable losses, the Mariners won their first game of the 2004 season today against the Oakland Athletics. It looked rough at first, as Jamie Moyer gave up three runs early, and then when Oakland extended the lead to four later in the game it looked like the Mariners would remain the only team in the majors without a win. But the Seattle bats came alive late in the game, with two runs coming in the sixth inning and two more in the ninth to send the game to extra innings. The Mariners then exploded for five runs in the tenth inning, and Eddie Guardado held the A's scoreless in the bottom of the inning to give Seattle its first win.

0-6?

2004-04-09T11:21:00.000-07:00

After losing their first three home games to Anaheim, and a series in Oakland starting today, the M's are running a serious risk of starting the season 0-6. That definitely won't help playoff aspirations.

Not that I'm worrying, because I'm really not. We are, after all, only three game into a 162 game season. On a positive note, Freddy Garcia looked absolutely spectacular last night, tossing seven scoreless innings before Shigetoshi Hasegawa blew the lead in the ninth inning. And while the Mariners were swept in the first series, I don't think there is any real reason to panic. We know Hasegawa won't give up runs like that every time he goes out, and it is great to see Freddy Garcia pitching so well. If he can maintain that level of performance all season, the Mariners will have a great shot at the AL West title.

So fellow Mariners fans, don't get bummed out just yet. There is still plenty of baseball to play, and trust me when I say the M's will be much better in the coming weeks than their performance in the home opener indicates.

Tigers update: still undefeated, now 4-0 for the season. I wonder how long the "streak" can stay alive...

My thoughts on the first two games of the season

2004-04-08T06:50:00.000-07:00

Both of the first two games of the M's 2004 season have been a bit rough, but if anything I think we have reason to be optimistic after seeing the result of the first two games. The pitching will come around, there's no doubt about that. Jamie Moyer and Joel Pineiro won't give up 5+ runs every outing, and I think their rough outings can be attributed more to early season jitters than anything else. The big question with this ball club is whether or not they can score runs. And at least in the first two games, which I admit is not much of a measuring stick, the Mariners have proven that they can and will score plenty of runs.

More than anything, I'm just glad the season has finally started. I'm also glad to see the Detroit Tigers undefeated after three games. I guess they'll be my backup team if the M's crash and burn.

Interesting stuff

2004-04-07T21:50:00.000-07:00

ESPN has added pronunciation guides to its MLB player cards. Now there's no excuse for pronouncing 'Gagne' incorrectly.

Home opener

2004-04-06T21:27:00.000-07:00

Uh, it was a bit rough. No biggie though, it's just an opener after all. Now I've got a paper to write...

It's like Christmas eve

2004-04-05T20:39:00.000-07:00

Mariner Musings has some truly prolific Mariners poetry. And it's Haiku, which makes it that much better.

Tonight is like Christmas eve for Mariners fans, with the home opener now less than 24 hours away. I can't wait!

Bill Bavasi is an idiot...again

2004-04-04T09:32:00.000-07:00

Perhaps the most talked about aspect of the Mariners in the Blogosphere is the idiocy of Bill Bavasi. And while I have generally refrained from bashing the 'Goat Boy,' the latest in a series of questionable moves by the GM has me a bit irate. Yes, irate. Because Bavasi has single handedly taken the team I love most and done nearly everything in his power to destroy what is good about it. And while he hasn't completely succeeded, this latest move is another step in that direction. In case you're wondering, the move I'm talking about is the trade that went down last night, sending Aaron Looper and Ryan Ketchner to the Dodgers for Jolbert Cabrera. I assume what Bill Bavasi meant to do here was either to find a short term replacement for Scott Spiezio, who will start the season on the DL, or acquire someone to strengthen the Seattle bench. The only problem is, Bavasi messed up badly in the process. If he wanted a replacement for Scott Spiezio, why give up one of the organization's best pitching prospects in Aaron Looper for a mediocre utility player who would only be filling in for Spiezio for at most a few weeks? And if Bavasi is trying to strengthen the bench, why not go after someone who actually justifies giving up one of the organization's best minor league pitchers? Is Jolbert Cabrera really worth what the Mariners gave up for him? I say, emphatically, no.

Why the Mariners should not pursue Milton Bradley

2004-04-03T20:04:00.000-08:00

The Cleveland Indians are finally tired of Milton Bradley; after failing to run out a pop fly, Bradley and manager Eric Wedge exchanged words and as a result, the Indians are seeking to trade the talented outfielder. And as one would expect, the M's Blogosphere has jumped all over the possibility of the Mariners trading for Bradley. While Bradley is without doubt a very talented young player, with the potential for a very bright future on the field, I would as a fan prefer that GM Bill Bavasi let the rumors remain just that: rumors, and nothing more. I just don't think Milton Bradley would be a good fit in Seattle, despite his upside as a terrific young player.

In just 101 games last season, Bradley had a .321 Batting Average, .421 On Base Percentage, .501 Slugging Percentage, and had good totals in runs, hits, doubles, home runs, RBI, and stolen bases for having played in as few games as he did. Obviously, the guy can play. His combination of the ability to make contact with the ball and good speed would make him a great leadoff or two hole hitter. In fact, in comparison to Ichiro's .352 OBP in 2003, Milton Bradley's excellent .421 rate would make him arguably more productive at the top of the lineup. But of course Bradley would not be replacing Ichiro in the lineup; the odd man out, as he always seems to be in Mariners rumors, would be Randy Winn. And in his favor, I think Milton Bradley would be at least at the plate an improvement over Randy Winn. He reaches base at a far higher rate, bats for a better average, has a developing power stroke, and seems able to run the bases as well or better. Even with the fact that Bradley has missed significant time in the last two seasons, Bradley is at the plate a more valuable player than Randy Winn.

Defensively, the picture is very different. Milton Bradley's career fielding percentage in center field is .986, compared to Randy Winn's .992 - advantage Winn. Bradley's career range factor in center is 2.52, while Winn's is 2.64 - advantage Winn again. In 371 career games in center field, Randy Winn has 8 errors, while Bradley has 10 errors in only 287 career games - another one to Randy Winn. Bradley does have a very strong throwing arm, and as a thrower Randy Winn is now Ichiro. But while both are capable, and neither are Gold Glove material, it appears at least on paper that Randy Winn is the better defensive player. At best it is a wash between the two, but most importantly Milton Bradley is no Mike Cameron, and does not have an edge over Randy Winn in the field.

Another thing going for Randy Winn is that he is already a Mariner, and we more or less know what we are getting when Randy Winn plays. He has not missed significant time in the last two seasons, while Bradley has missed quite a bit of time due to injury. Winn has had almost identical production numbers over the last two seasons, and has demonstrated relative consistency as a Mariner. Furthermore, Randy Winn is not a constant problem in the clubhouse. As far as we can tell, Randy Winn is well liked by his teammates, Mariners management, and perhaps most importantly, Bob Melvin. This is where he really outshines Milton Bradley. Those of use who live in the Portland, OR area and are Blazers fans are well aware of the affect 'clubhouse cancers' can have on a team. The attitudes of Bonzi Wells/Rasheed Wallace, et al., veritably destroyed the Blazers over a period of three or four years. And while the acquisition of Milton Bradley certainly won't have such a dramatic effect on the Mariners, nonetheless his attitude is not something the Mariners want or need. This latest trouble with the Indians is only the most recent of a string of issues in Bradley's playing career, and the Indians have tried a number of times to trade him in the past.

So let's tally up the score. Milton Bradley has the decided advantage as a hitter. We'll call it a tie defensively, and as a player/teammate Randy Winn has a huge advantage. Normally I would be open to acquiring a player with Bradley's upside even with his off-field history, but in this case I do not think it is a good idea. It's not like Randy Winn is a bad player. While he is not as productive as Milton Bradley at the plate, Winn is nonetheless no slouch. He hits for good average, reaches base at a respectable rate, and has better than average speed. Defensively he is not Gold Glove material (at least not in center field, left field is a different story), but he is still a very good outfielder. Yeah, Milton Bradley is a better player than Randy Winn, but I don't think his upside is worth the off-field issues that Bradley brings. Randy Winn is good enough, and the Mariners ought to keep him around at least until a better option than Milton Bradley comes along.

I can't believe this

2004-03-26T23:24:00.000-08:00

Check this out: www.buckybackers.com. Bucky Jacobsen actually has a fan site.

Reciprocal links, and other stuff

2004-03-19T15:13:00.000-08:00

Every once in a while I try to cruise around the Mariners Blogosphere and see if any sites have links back to me that I haven't linked to yet. I know I always miss some, though, so if you read this and have a link to my site that I haven't returned, please email me so I can put a link up.

Winter quarter at school just ended, so with this week and the next off I expect to start paying more attention to my blog. Check back for updates.

Also, I'm thinking of starting a MarinersWeekly email newsletter. I would compile the week's stats, news, and other interesting/important information and send a newsletter each week to whoever subscribes. Would anyone be interested in something like that? Let me know what you think.

In case anyone cares, my team is dead last in the Mariners Blogosphere Simulated Baseball League. Looking at the results of our simulated season so far, I just have a hard time believing the Diamond Mind program can accurately simulate a season. Cruise to the site and look at the stats, so many elite players are having terrible seasons its almost unbelievable. If that happened in an actual season...I hate to think what might happen. Apocalypse...? I'm not really complaining about how badly my team is doing, but it just seems weird to me.

New Mariners Commercials

2004-03-16T10:41:00.000-08:00

SeattleMariners.com posted the new ads for the 2004 season. As usual, they're very well done, and quite funny to boot. You can view them all at www.seattlemariners.com.

Help please

2004-03-11T16:45:00.000-08:00

Anyone know where I can find box scores for the Mariners' spring training games? I would like to start compiling a weekly report (which was the original intent behind this site), and spring stats would allow me to do that. Email me if you have any leads.

Check this out

2004-03-04T12:10:00.000-08:00

Jamie Moyer is doing an online journal for SeattleMariners.com. It's some interesting reading.

ATM Reports Predictions Contest

2004-02-23T16:19:00.000-08:00

Lee Sinins, creator of the Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia and author of the daily Around The Majors reports has an annual standings prediction contest. Here are my (objective) predictions:

AL West:
Angels
Mariners
A's
Rangers

AL Central:
White Sox
Twins
Royals
Indians
Tigers

AL East:
Yankees
Red Sox
Oriols
Blue Jays
Devil Rays

My NL picks may not be what I actually submitted for the contest, I've forgotten what my actual picks were, so these are guesses.

NL West:
Giants
Diamondbacks
Padres
Dodgers
Rockies

NL Central:
Cubs
Astros
Cardinals
Reds
Pirates

NL East:
Phillies
Marlins
Braves
Mets
Expos

Playoff picks aren't part of the contest, but here are my Spring Training picks:

AL Divisional Series:

Yankees vs. White Sox
Red Sox vs. Angels

NL Divisional Series

Cubs vs. Phillies
Astros vs. Giants

AL Championship:

Yankees vs. Red Sox (This is the easy pick, but the Angels have a good shot if they make the playoffs)

NL Championship

Cubs vs. Astros (New Houston rotation too much for Philadelphia)

World Series:

Cubs vs. Yankees (ALCS could go either way, Yanks have slight edge in my book)

World Champion:

Chicago Cubs (With Prior/Wood starting 4-5 games in the WS, and Maddux/Zambrano picking up the rest, I like the Cubbies to finally win one)

Disclaimer: These picks are most likely way off. But that's what Spring Training picks are about.

Spring Training is here

2004-02-23T16:05:00.000-08:00

To repeat what everyone else is talking about, pitchers/catchers have already reported to Peoria, and the rest of the roster will report by the end of the week. Randy Winn and Raul Ibañez (and others, I forget who) arrived early.

I won't be posting much on this until something meaningful happens. So until I think of something interesting to say, expect these short news posts in the near future.

Here's something to think about

2004-02-15T20:55:00.000-08:00

If Aaron Boone hadn't gotten hurt, would the A-Rod for Soriano deal have gone down?

I talk about it as if it is a done deal, but the Commish still has to approve it. Bud is expected to give his approval on Monday.

Also, I didn't realize until today that everyone is talking about the Mariners Blogosphere Simulated Baseball League. I really regret drafting Mark Grudzielanek. My plan was to play Aaron Boone at 2B (Look at his defensive ratings, it's actually his best position) and pick one of the many good 3B left (Mark Teixeira looked especially enticing). Instead, I read the MBSBL analysis at Mariner Optimist and somehow got it into my head that I HAD TO HAVE Mark Grudzielanek. I should have just stuck to the plan...

ARod to Yankees?

2004-02-14T19:12:00.000-08:00

Un-freakin'-real.

With the addition of Rodriguez, the Yankees would be about as close to unbeatable as it is possible to be. Look at this lineup:

1B: Jason Giambi
2B: ???
3B: Alex Rodriguez
SS: Derek Jeter
LF: Hideki Matsui
CF: Kenny Lofton
RF: Gary Sheffield
C: Jorge Posada
DH: Bernie Williams

That is just incredible. A starting lineup with a former All-Star AT EVERY POSITION except second base. They have Miguel Cairo on the roster now, but I imagine the Boss would try to find a better replacement for Alfonso Soriano. Is Nomar Garciaparra available?

More signings

2004-02-10T18:06:00.000-08:00

The Mariners signed Terry Mulholland and Eric Owens to minor league contracts. Both will compete for roster spots during spring training. Nothing important or exciting here.

Ho hum...

2004-02-10T14:07:00.000-08:00

The Mariners signed Ron Villone to a one year, $1 million contract. Villone adresses the need for another lefty reliever, although I would bet the spot could still be filled with another signing or by one of the Mariners' many lefty reliever spring training invites.

The M's are also reportedly pursuing Raul Mondesi. He would be a great addition to the Seattle bench, if he were willing to accept that role. From what it sounds like, he is unwilling to do that. It would be nice to have another competent outfielder to give Ichiro more rest throughout the season though. Maybe he could be a Mark McLemore kind of guy...

At least Bill Bavasi is trying to assemble a better bench

2004-02-06T08:28:00.000-08:00

The Mariners tried, and failed, to sign Ellis Burks, who despite a better offer from Seattle decided to go to Boston. If nothing else, this indicates that Bill Bavasi at least understands the Mariners' glaring lack of good bench hitters. Hopefully he will use the Sasaki money to land some good bench hitters, though I don't know how many are available on the market.

Kaz Sasaki has a new team

2004-02-03T08:21:00.000-08:00

Kazuhiro Sasaki signed with the Yokohama BayStars yesterday, for a reported 500 million yen ($4.7 million).

The Mariners also signed a 17 year old pitcher from Australia.

Pickin's are slim nowadays...

2004-01-28T14:39:00.000-08:00

As there is little to report right now, I haven't posted for a while. I almost wrote an article on Shawn Green yesterday, but it was getting late, and the topic really wasn't that interesting. Stay tuned for new posts as news develops...

Sasaki departure a mixed blessing

2004-01-24T15:07:00.000-08:00

Losing one of the best closers in the American League can never be a good thing, can it? In the case of the Mariners and their recent loss of Kazuhiro Sasaki (I assume you've heard the specifics...if not, go here), it may turn out to be a very good thing...but with Bill Bavasi at the helm, one can never be sure.

For three years Kaz Sasaki was one of the most dominant closers in the AL, posting 119 saves in his first three seasons. He was the beginning of the Mariners' bullpen revolution. In the aftermath of the Bobby Ayala/Jose Mesa era of Seattle baseball, Kazuhiro Sasaki single-handedly restored fan confidence in the Seattle bullpen. The Mariners went from a team that could never keep a late game lead to a team that almost never lost one.

But with Sasaki now out of the picture, the Mariners will have as much as $9.5 million to spend on artillery for the coming season. That is about one tenth of the Mariners' total payroll. They should be able to make some serious improvements with that amount of money...right? But could $9.5 million in freely spendable payroll actually be a bad thing? I think that in the case of the Bill Bavasi Mariners, it may be.

The reason I say it may be a bad thing is that although the money is there to spend, there isn't much to spend it on. The only free agent left that would fit the Mariners' need for a power bat at an upgradable position is Ivan Rodriguez. I-Rod would be quite an improvement over the Wilson/Davis tandem at catcher, but what if the Mariners don't land Rodriguez? What will they spend the money on then?

They might pick up a few bats to strengthen the bench, and they might sign a lefty reliever, but what then? I imagine a sizeable chunk of that $9.5 million would be left over even if the Mariners filled those gaps. Will they leave it lying to make a trade down the road? That seems like a perilous proposition to me. What if they can't make a trade, and that money sits around collecting dust in Bill Bavasi's pocket? Or even worse, what if Bill signs some more "tools" players who can't hit their way out of a paper sack? Might Bavasi use the money to sign Cuban defector Maels Rodriguez? What if he gets injured? What if he turns out to be a bust?

I see too many bad "what if?" scenarios resulting from Kaz Sasaki's departure. If the Mariners had had this extra money around November/December, maybe Miguel Tejada or Vlad Guerrero would be in Seattle right now. But as it is, I'm imagining a number of ways in which Bill Bavasi could actually do damage to the Mariners with this newly acquired jackpot. Here's to hoping Ivan Rodriguez becomes a Mariner in the coming weeks...

Kazuhiro Sasaki wants to leave the Mariners

2004-01-19T19:10:00.000-08:00

ESPN reports that Kaz Sasaki does not want to play for the Mariners, or for any MLB team, in 2004 and beyond. I'm busy right now, so I don't have time to add any real commentary about this, but this is a huge development for the Mariners.

Kerry wins Iowa caucuses

2004-01-19T19:05:00.000-08:00

MSNBC reports that John Kerry has won the Iowa caucuses. This isn't exactly Mariners news, but it is important nonetheless.

Hot Stove Heaters are back

2004-01-15T18:26:00.000-08:00

ESPN's yearly Hot Stove Heaters are back for 2004. For the baseball fan who can't wait for Spring Training to start, these are always a good read.

Mariners retain Anderson, Charlton considering comeback

2004-01-13T20:08:00.000-08:00

After passing wavers, the Mariners retained Ryan Anderson and assigned him to AAA Tacoma.

SeattleMariners.com reports that Norm Charlton is considering a comeback to the Mariners for the 2004 season. The M's could use a left handed reliever, and if Norm is able, I'd personally love to see him back on the roster.

The AL West just got better

2004-01-13T10:14:00.000-08:00

Rob Neyer wrote an interesting article on how the Angels have dramatically improved their roster, and their chances of winning the division in 2004.

I'm not sure who will win the AL West, but I know the competition just got a lot stiffer with the Guerrero signing. Great move by the Angels. As for the Mariners, I think they will play well enough to compete for the division title, but I know any team from the AL West will probably have to win the division to make the playoffs. If the Mariners play as well as I think they're capable of, it should be an exciting 2004 season.

An interesting tidbit that I missed earlier

2004-01-08T14:01:00.000-08:00

Update: Ryan Anderson was designated for assignment yesterday (Jan 9).

In his Guillen/Aurilia article, Bob Finnigan also reported that the Mariners will likely drop Ryan Anderson from the 40 man roster, effectively ending his Mariner career. M's fans will of course remember when the six foot, ten inch "Little Unit" joined the Mariners in 1997 as the first pick in the MLB draft. He looked like the second coming of Randy Johnson, with a 100 mph fastball and a giant wingspan. But injuries have kept him out of action for three seasons, and now no one is certain when, if ever, Ryan Anderson will take the mound again for a major league team. I hope he can get healthy and catch on with another team, because he deserves a chance to play in the bigs.

Guillen deal done, Aurilia near Marinerhood

2004-01-08T13:00:00.000-08:00

Update: Both deals are now official.

John Hickey at Seattle PI reports that the Mariners have reached a deal with the Tigers that would send Carlos Guillen to Detroit in exchange for some minor leaguers. Bob Finnigan at Seattle Times reports that the deal would include a major league player on the Detroit end of the deal, possibly infielder Ramon Santiago. Carlos Guillen's replacement, Rich Aurilia, has agreed to a one year contract at about $3.5 million. The Aurilia deal awaits the results of a physical, while the Tigers have only to approve Guillen's medical records for that deal to be compelted.

The Mariners will be paying Aurilia an extra $1 million over what they would have paid Carlos Guillen in 2004. Whether Aurilia is worth the extra cash remains to be seen. He has had injury problems, but not of the sort that plagued Carlos Guillen; rather, Aurilia missed more than three weeks last season due to an emergency apendectomy, and struggled with a condition known as "dry eye." Both of those problems have been taken care of, and there is no reason to expect that Aurilia will not be able to play a full season in 2004. Carlos Guillen, on the other hand, can almost always be expected to miss a a good chunk of time during any given season. Furthermore, Rich Aurilia is a better hitter than Guillen, with superior seasonal averages in home runs, RBI, runs scored, and OPS. As a fielder, Aurilia is competent, no better or worse than Guillen.

So overall, I think this move will improve the Mariners, though I'm not sure GM Bill Bavasi will be getting useful players or prospects in return for Guillen. I'll have to wait and see what the specifics are on that deal.

A template change

2004-01-07T17:18:00.000-08:00

I didn't like the old template, so I switched to this one. I kept the html for the old template though, so I may switch back at some point.

Also, I've decided to actually give this site a weekly flavor, as is implied in the title, and which I initially intended to do. During the season (maybe preseason too) I will post a weekly report, to include the week's stats, scores, updated standings, and news tidbits. I will also continue the regular unscheduled posting, which will include the types of things I post currently: analysis, opinions, insight, etc. So look for that when the Mariners start the regular season, and in the meantime keep reading!

Quite possibly the worst bench in baseball

2004-01-07T11:26:00.000-08:00

Although I haven't touched on the subject much, it has been on my mind, and on the minds of the other Mariners bloggers out there. Could Bill Bavasi have possibly assembled a worse bench than he has for the 2004 season? With the Jeff Cirillo trade, the M's bench now includes such feared hitters as:

Ben Davis
Willie Bloomquist
Dave Hansen
Wiki Gonzalez
Luis Ugueto
Quinton McCracken
Jamal Strong (?)
Chris Snelling (?)

Not exactly a lineup that makes opposing managers agonize over who Bob Melvin might send to the plate in the ninth inning. This has got to be the absolute worst bench among teams who are contending for playoff spots in the AL. It could be one of the worst benches in all of baseball. Some Japanese League benches may be better than this one. The Mariners need at least two, maybe three, good hitters on the bench. They had one in Greg Colbrunn, but that quickly turned into Quinton McCracken. Most of the bench, aside from Bloomquist and Davis, couldn't hit its way out of a wet paper sack. The Mariners need some help on the bench, and they need it quick.

Who would have thought it would come to this?

2004-01-07T10:45:00.000-08:00

When Jeff Cirillo joined the Mariners two seasons ago, the future looked bright. To Seattle came what many believed to be the final piece to the puzzle: Jeff Cirillo, a two time All Star, one of the best players at his position. With a slick glove and a great bat to boot, Jeff Cirillo looked like a wonderful addition at a position that had been (and still is) a question mark year after year in Seattle. But then, disaster struck. For whatever reason, though we may theorize about the specifics, it didn't work out with Jeff. After two seasons in which he batted just .234, hit 8 home runs and 75 RBI, Jeff Cirillo is no longer a Mariner.

As of today he is now a Padre, the Seattle contribution to a six player trade that sent Cirillo along with minor league pitcher Brian Sweeney and cash to San Diego for pitcher Kevin Jarvis, catcher Wiki Gonzalez, infielder Dave Hansen, and a minor leaguer. This is what it has come to. Jeff Cirillo was not ample compensation for the services of a veteran pitcher whose career ERA is hovering near 6.00, a young catcher who has never shown much promise as a major leaguer, a utility infielder who may have some value to the Mariners, and an unnamed minor leaguer. No, the Mariners also had to give up a good pitching prospect in Brian Sweeney and cash to complete the deal. Who would have thought?

I actually feel bad for Jeff Cirillo. His ineffectiveness as a Mariner was not due to a lack of effort or desire. His toughest critic was himself, and that may be what doomed him from the beginning. Maybe his expectations were too high, and when he struggled early in his Mariner career, his lack of confidence may have compounded the problem and led to the tailspin. Whatever the reason, it's too bad for Jeff and for the Mariners that it didn't work out. It could have been a wonderful thing, but now it's just an ugly memory that I don't think Mariners fans will ever forget, but will always wish they could.

Heartbreak in Green Bay

2004-01-04T13:40:00.000-08:00

What a game. The Seahawks had their chances, but in the end it just wasn't to be. Matt Hasselbeck showed how good he is though, despite giving up the losing interception. Too bad.

Do the Seahawks have a chance against Green Bay?

2004-01-03T15:17:00.000-08:00

I think they do. But I still wouldn't bet on the 'Hawks this weekend. Here's to hoping that they make it to the Super Bowl.

Another filler post

2004-01-02T17:10:00.000-08:00

Still not much new to post about. There is talk of the M's signing Rich Aurilia, but I think I've already given that subject enough attention. Also, there is a trade rumor that would send Jeff Cirillo to San Diego for P Kevin Jarvis, but that isn't enough of a tidbit to devote an entire post to. Hope everyone had a good holiday season.

The pre-Spring Training Slowdown

2003-12-26T13:38:00.000-08:00

Not much to talk about nowadays. I'm sure it will pick up as Spring Training approaches. I'm just posting to let my loyal readers (are you out there?) know that I'm still around.

I've been far too kind to the Mariners

2003-12-23T11:54:00.000-08:00

Maybe it's the passionate fan in me. Maybe it's the "glass is half full" side of my consciousness. Whatever the cause, I think I have been too kind and overly optimistic about the Mariners this offseason. With an often anemic offense in 2003, the M's needed to add a big bat to the lineup. So what did they do? They added Raul Ibañez and Scott Spiezio. Not exactly what the doctor ordered.

Sure, I've argued that the M's are slightly improved over the 2003 roster, and I still think I'm right. But what they really needed wasn't Ibañez or Spiezio. What they needed was Tejada, Matsui, Guerrero, Ordoñez, or any other big name player with a good bat. Now the Mariners will field a team that may win 90 games, and have a good shot at making the playoffs. But even if they do make the playoffs, there is no way the Mariners have the firepower to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox deep in the post season.

Obviously, the M's ownership doesn't mind that their team has never won a World Series. What they really care about is how many people they can bring to the stadium, how many Ichiro jerseys they can sell, and ultimately how much money they can stuff in their pockets at the end of the season. Of course, management had every opportunity to bring a big name to Seattle, but that didn't happen. Instead, we got Raul Ibañez and Scott Spiezio. It's not their fault, of course. Ibañez and Spiezio are two good players who just aren't good enough to cure the Mariners' woes on their own.

But who knows? Maybe the Mariners will get lucky. They'll have to get lucky, because otherwise they don't stand a chance.

Now Bill Bavasi wants Rich Aurilia

2003-12-19T11:56:00.000-08:00

Why couldn't the M's have gone after Rich Aurilia before they dallied with Omar Vizquel? Why would Omar be a better option than Aurilia? To try and understand the moves the new management is making (or trying and failing to make) is like trying to comprehend Saddam Hussein's assertion that he was a "kind, firm leader" in Iraq. It just baffles the mind. So I'm going to quit trying to understand.

Instead, I'm going to consider this latest rumor that would bring Rich Aurilia to Seattle. I think it would be an alright move, undeserving of praise and yet not a terrible move either. Aurilia hits for far more power than Carlos Guillen, plays shortstop as well or better than Guillen, and doesn't miss as much time to injury as Guillen. Guillen has in recent times had a higher OBP than Aurilia, but then again, the M's didn't see much benefit from Carlos' respectable .359 in 2003 thanks to his ongoing injury problems.

I guess the primary thinking behind an Aurilia signing would be to find a shortstop that is going to be in the lineup every day, or at least more often than Carlos Guillen. Rich Aurilia would be an upgrade over Carlos Guillen, so although I think the M's would be better off trying to acquire a big name guy like Magglio Ordoñez or Nomar Garciaparra, I believe this move would improve the Mariners. And if nothing else, having Rich Aurilia at short would be much better than having Omar Vizquel man the position.

Details of Ichiro contract

2003-12-18T22:44:00.000-08:00

Edited: I horribly misspelled Art Thiel's name in my original post, and now it's on the main page at BaseballBlogs.org. Sorry Art. For those who are clicking over to this article from BaseballBlogs.org, ignore the misspelling that appears there. I goofed.

Art Thiel at Seattle PI reports that Ichiro's new contract pays him $44 million over four years. I'm just glad the M's are keeping Ichiro happy and in a Seattle uniform.

Ichiro signed for four years, undisclosed $$$

2003-12-18T13:26:00.000-08:00

Mariners fans can breath a collective sigh of relief, as the team has reached an agreement with Ichiro for a four year contract. The amount of money involved has not yet been reported. The two sides were very far apart in their proposals only a few weeks ago, which had many M's fans wondering if Ichiro would leave Seattle after his old contract expired. With Ichiro now signed, the management can turn its focus on Freddy Garcia and Jeff Cirillo. Both players are at the center of numberous trade rumors, and could be used to trade for a big name player. Though I doubt Bill Bavasi will be able to make such a trade, I can still have hope. It looks more likely that the Mariners won't trade Garcia, and instead will simply non-tender him, leaving him to sign with another team. That would be in line with some of the other boneheaded moves the new GM has made, and I think that is exactly what Bavasi will do.

I didn't want to have to do this...

2003-12-18T13:11:00.000-08:00

Update: Here is my essay explaining ROP in greater detail.

In my statistical analysis of the M's offseason subractions/additions, I did not temper the individual players' statistics with relevant team statistics. Why? Well, because under the circumstances it was unnecessary.

I actually wrote a big paper on this subject a year ago, which I will post here in the near future. In the paper, I proposed a new method of statistical analysis, called Relative Offensive Production. This method takes a player's Runs Scored and Runs Batted in, and tempers the player's production with relevant team statistics. The team stats used are Team Batting Average with Runners on Base, and Team On Base Percentage. These two stats are used because they are the primary team factors that influence a player's production in Runs Scored and Runs Batted In.

Using those stats, I then produce, for lack of better terms, a Team Not-Batting Average with Runners On, and a Team Not-On Base Percentage. To do this, I simply subtract the team's BA w/runners on from 1.000, and the team OBP from 1.000. The Team Not-OBP is then multiplied by the individual player's RBI, and the Team Not-BA w/runners on is multiplied by the individual player's Runs Scored. In this way, players are rewarded when their team does not help them by getting on base as often or by hitting when runners are on base, while players are penalized when their team does help them by getting on base frequently and hitting when runners are on base.

As in any sabermetric method, there are some flaws in this method; I outline these and possible solutions in my paper. Using the Mariners' latest player subtractions/additions as examples, I will demonstrate how this method of analysis works:

Raul Ibañez vs. Mike Cameron (2003)

RBI

Royals Not-OBP (.641) * Ibañez RBI (90) = 57.69

Mariners Not-OBP (.639) * Cameron RBI (76) = 48.564

Runs Scored

Royals Not-BA w/runners on (.700) * Ibañez Runs Scored (95) = 66.5

Mariners Not-BA w/runners on (.720) * Cameron Runs Scored (74) = 53.28

The Relative Offensive Production score is then computed by adding the results of the calculation. Raul Ibañez's ROP (2003) was 124.19, while Mike Cameron's was 101.844. Raul Ibañez produced more runs for his team in 2003 than Mike Cameron produced for his team. I could perform the same calculations for Scott Spiezio and Jeff Cirillo, but I think it is obvious what the results would be. This method of statistical analysis tempers a player's production with that of his team, yielding a score that accurately reflects a player's contribution to his team's offensive production.

Again, I will post a hugely elongated explanation of this method later on, probably when I figure out how to post a link that allows readers to simply download the document, as it is over ten pages in length and I don't want to post it in its entirety on this page.

Statistical analysis of the M's offseason additions

2003-12-17T12:23:00.000-08:00

In gauging the effectiveness of Bill Bavasi's player subtractions/additions, I will turn to some statistical analysis. I will be using Runs Scored, Runs Batted In, and On Base Percentage. Why? Well, the ultimate goal of a team's offense is to score runs. Individual players can contribute to this goal either by scoring runs or batting them in. Home runs, stolen bases, etc, only contribute to the ultimate goal of creating runs. I use OBP as a down-and-dirty evaluation of how often a player makes outs; the higher a player's OBP, the less often he makes outs, and vice versa.

Raul Ibañez vs. Mike Cameron

Runs Scored:

Ibañez - 95
Cameron - 74

Advantage Ibañez, +21 runs

Runs Batted In:

Ibañez - 90
Cameron - 76

Advantage Ibañez, +14 runs

OBP:

Ibañez - .345
Cameron - .344

Advantage Nobody

Raul Ibañez contributed more runs to the Royals' offense in 2003 than Mike Cameron contributed to the Mariners' offense. Raul Ibañez is an offensive upgrade over Mike Cameron, plays far better at Safeco Field than Mike Cameron, and suits the needs of the Mariners better than Mike Cameron.

Scott Spiezio vs. Jeff Cirillo

Runs Scored:

Spiezio - 69
Cirillo - 24

Advantage Spiezio, +45 runs

Runs Batted In:

Spiezio - 83
Cirillo - 23

Advantage Spiezio, +60 runs

OBP:

Spiezio - .326
Cirillo - .284

Advantage Spiezio

Admittedly, Cirillo had 263 less at bats than Spiezio, but the difference is obvious regardless. Spiezio contributed way more runs to the Angels' offense in 2003 than Cirillo contributed to the Mariners' offense, or would have contributed even if he had played as often as Spiezio. Now, I think there were probably better options than Scott Spiezio on the market, but he is a big improvement over the revolving door at third base that the M's had last year.

As for the bench, the only players of any consequence who are now gone are Greg Colbrunn and John Mabry. Neither performed well in 2003, and there was no reason to believe they would perform any better in 2003. The Mariners will find equally irrelevent and unproductive players, including Quinton McCracken, to fill the bench gaps, and ultimately the shuffle in the bench roster will have next to no effect on the result of the 2004 season.

The only pitching change so far was the departure of Arthur Rhodes and the arrival of Eddie Guardado. Over the last two seasons, Guardado had an average ERA of around 2.90, while Rhodes had an average ERA of around 3.25. Arthur Rhodes proved unreliable in the second half of 2003, and a change needed to be made. In Eddie Guardado the Mariners have upgraded at the left-handed setup man position, and on top of that have a proven closer who can take over if Kaz Sasaki goes down again.

Like I said in my last post, 2004 isn't going to be as bad as a lot of people are projecting. The M's have improved, and although they should have improved quite a bit more than they did, they are a better team than they were a few months ago. The offseason isn't over, and the Mariners still have some holes to fill. Let's see what the team looks like in February before we project how many games they will win in 2004.

My revised Mariners offseason grade: C

2003-12-17T10:05:00.000-08:00

No, I won't give Bill Bavasi a F. I know most Mariners writers out there would, but he has done a few things right. He did sign Raul Ibañez, who will certainly help the Mariners' offensive woes, and Eddie Guardado, who is an improvement over Arthur Rhodes at the left-handed setup man post. However, the new GM has made (or tried to make) some pretty horrible moves. The Carlos Guillen for Omar Vizquel, which thankfully failed due to Omar's bad knee, would have been one of the worst trades in recent M's history. Furthermore, I question the Scott Spiezio signing on the grounds that Bavasi has ties to the Angels association, especially when there were better options at third out there. The new GM could have, and many believe should have, signed a big name free agent like Miguel Tejada or Vlad Guerrero, so that's another mark against him. What a lot of people out there are failing to realize is that despite Bavasi's lackluster performance in his rookie offseason as the M's GM, he has improved the team. They may have taken a small step backward defensively, but Raul Ibañez is a big offensive upgrade over Mike Cameron, especially at home, and Scott Spiezio is a big offensive upgrade over the anemic Jeff Cirillo. Furthermore, the bullpen is better with Arthur Rhodes gone and Eddie Guardado taking his place. The bench was never very good, and the departure of Greg Colbrunn doesn't really mean much. He and John Mabry didn't do much for the Mariners last year, and they weren't going to do much for the team next year.

Calm down, guys. The defense is still very good, probably the best in the AL.

Take it easy, guys. The pitching staff has gotten better, and is still one of the best in the AL.

It's alright, guys. The offense, while not exactly prolific, is better than it was last year.

2004 will be better than most writers are projecting.

Omar Vizquel didn't pass his physical

2003-12-16T21:14:00.000-08:00

MLB.com is reporting that Omar Vizquel did not pass his physical with the Mariners, and will not be traded after all. Apparantly the Mariners doctors didn't like the condition of his recently repaired knee. Although I am elated that Omar Vizquel will not be the Mariners' shortstop next season, the prospects still are not good. If GM Bavasi was willing to go through with that lopsided trade, what else might he be willing to do? This could get very bad.

My revised opinion on Bill Bavasi

2003-12-16T13:22:00.000-08:00

I reported on Saturday that Bill Bavasi was "filling Pat Gillick's shoes wonderfully." However, the moves he has made since then have left me in doubt as to whether that was an accurate assesment. A lot of people who write about the Mariners are ripping the new GM pretty badly, and although I don't want to jump on that bandwagon yet, I have to say I am a bit disappointed in some of the moves he has made in the last few days. I think it's too early to call him a bad GM, so I'll wait and see.

A truly horrifying rumor

2003-12-16T11:23:00.000-08:00

Yep, just when things were looking up for the Mariners, the ship has suddenly come crashing down. The Seattle Times reports that the M's are close to a trade that would send Carlos Guillen to Cleveland for Omar Vizquel. Now my first reaction to this is: What the *bleep* is Bill Bavasi thinking? Why is Omar Vizquel, who is due $7 million dollars next season, a better option at shortstop than Carlos Guillen? In Vizquel, you're getting a cry baby veteran who has never been good at the plate and can't play shortstop nearly as well as he once was able. He won't put up the offensive numbers Guillen does, he won't be much of an improvement on defense, and even if he does play more games than Guillen would (Carlos has been injury prone), is it really worth an extra $4.5 million in payroll?

There are other less terrifying rumors out there, however. The Seattle Times reports that the Mariners are working to complete a trade that would send Jeff Cirillo to the Mets in exchange for Roger Cedeño. Cirillo has $15 million left on his contract, while Cedeño has only $10 million left over the next two seasons. It doesn't look like there would be any room for Cedeño on the roster, so if he were to come to Seattle, I doubt the Mariners would keep him very long. The Mets are also rumored to be working on a deal that would send Cedeño to the White Sox for Billy Koch. That seems like a more likely scenario, but no trade has yet been confirmed by the Mariners, Mets, or White Sox. Needless to say, dumping Cirillo's remaining salary would be a huge relief to the Mariners' payroll, as Cirillo has probably played his last game as a Mariner and will be leaving one way or another before the 2004 season.

The Mariners are also trying to deal Freddy Garcia. Recent rumors have him possibly going to the Dodgers or White Sox, but details of any potential trades have yet to be released. Many teams may hold off on trading for Garcia, as the Mariners are likely to non-tender him on Saturday if they cannot work out a trade, which would make him a free agent.

Along with the Scott Spiezio signing, the Mariners traded Greg Colbrunn for Quinton McCracken, a reserve outfielder from the Diamondbacks. This trade really doesn't mean much, other than that the Mariners did not see a future that included Greg Colbrunn on the roster, and decided that they could use a veteran fourth outfielder. McCracken is a good clubhouse guy, is friends with Randy Winn, and knows Bob Melvin from their time together in Arizona. He should fit in well, but I doubt he will see more than 100 ABs in 2004.

Lots of new developments

2003-12-15T11:08:00.000-08:00

Well, we can all top wondering about Miguel Tejada. The shortstop signed with the Orioles yesterday, which quickly prompted the Mariners to resign Carlos Guillen to a one year, $2.5 million contract. The M's also signed 1B/3B Scott Spiezio, who figures to start at third base next season. These recent developments indicate that the Mariners are now out of the running for any of the big name free agents left on the market. Vladimir Guerrero is reportedly close to a deal with the Orioles, and after him there aren't many other big name players that the M's would be interested in. With the Ibañez/Guardado/Spiezio signings, the M's will still be a much improved team over the 2003 club. Although they have declined significantly in their outfield defense (Raul Ibañez is no Mike Cameron), they have upgraded at third (Scott Spiezio is a very good defensive infielder). But the greatest improvement is to their offense. Scott Spiezio will be a consistent producer at what was once a revolving door at third base, and Raul Ibañez, with a left-handed swing that suits Safeco Field perfectly, will be an offensive improvement over Mike Cameron. The bullpen has gotten better too, as the Mariners signed one of the best left-handed relievers in the American League, Eddie Guardado. I'm not anticipating any more big signings by the Mariners, but watch out for some trades in the coming weeks. The M's have been shopping Jeff Cirillo and Freddy Garcia, and either of those two could be leaving soon. It is doubtful that the Mariners will acquire a big name player via trade, but they may look to add another cog to the machine in the next month or so.

Mariners offseason grade: A-

2003-12-13T17:19:00.000-08:00

It has been nearly a month since my last post. Now that school is out until January, I'll have time to make more entries in the coming weeks. Keeping checking in for updates...

With the Winter Meetings under way, now is as good a time as any to give the Mariners a mid-offseason grade. Simply put, Bill Bavasi has filled Pat Gillick's shoes wonderfully. He has signed all of the free agents the team wanted to keep for 2004, and in addition has brought in what will definitely be two key contributors, outfielder Raul Ibanez and left-handed reliever Eddie Guardado. Both players will play important roles in returning the Mariners to contention in the American League. The only blemish on Bavasi's record so far is the money he agreed to pay Ibanez; $4.3 million per year is a bit steep for a player like Ibanez. Furthermore, the negotiations with Ichiro do not seem to be making much progress. Reports have Ichiro and the Mariners as far as $5 million apart in proposed annual salary, leaving Mariners fans uneasy about the right fielder's future in Seattle.

GM Bill Bavasi isn't done adding personnel to the roster, however. Since the Mets' signing of Kazuo Matsui, the Mariners have been at the center of nearly every Miguel Tejada rumor. The Mariners offered him a reported three year, $24 million/year contract, but the Orioles countered with a better offer, reportedly a three year deal at $27 million per year. Both teams are in the hunt to sign the 2002 AL MVP, and with Tejada's announcement that he expects to agree to terms with a team this weekend, Mariners fans will soon know if the 2004 lineup will include one of the best shortstops in the American League.

If the Mariners sign Miguel Tejada, they will be at least on paper one of the top two or three teams in the American League. They already have the best bullpen in the AL, and one of the best starting rotations in the league, but the addition of Tejada on top of Raul Ibanez would at least on paper give the Mariners one of the best offenses in the league as well. Though at the cost of losing some of the brilliant defensive play the Mariners displayed in 2003, the Mariners are already a much better team than the 2003 version, and with Miguel Tejada would have to be considered alongside the Yankees and Red Sox as one of the American League's elite teams.

Mariners Offseason 2004 Overview

2003-11-19T20:48:00.000-08:00

With the 2003-04 Offseason well under way, the Mariners have already made a few moves to put together a roster for '04. Here is an overview, and what we may expect to see leading up to Spring Training.

The Mariners signed Raul Ibañez today for three years, at just over $13 million. Now the pieces will start to fall in place for the '04 roster. The Ibañez signing almost certainly means that Mike Cameron will not be returning next season, leaving Ibañez, Randy Winn, and Ichiro to play the outfield in '04. Catcher is covered by the Wilson/Davis tandem, John Olerud will play first, Bret Boone will play second, and Edgar Martinez will be the DH. Two more spots remain in the air: shortstop and third base. Currently, Carlos Guillen is the best option at short, but that will change if the M's sign Kazuo Matsui or Miguel Tejada. If either of those players are signed, Guillen will move to third and Jeff Cirillo will be on his way out of Seattle. If neither of those players come to Seattle, look for Guillen to stay at short while the Mariners look for a solid fill-in at third base; Vinny Castilla and Joe Randa are possibilities, though I have yet to hear either of those guys mentioned in any Mariners rumors.

The M's may also look to get younger in '04, primarily through the farm system. Chris Snelling is healthy again after a severe knee injury, and is likely to join the Mariners in Spring Training, as is Jamal Strong, who joined the M's as a call-up in '03. Look for some of the bench vacancies to be filled by those guys, and perhaps through a free agent signing or two.

The pitching staff may receive a bit of a shake-up for 2004 as well. It remains to be seen whether Freddy Garcia will stay in Seattle or leave via trade to one of a number of suitors around the league. He is again eligible for salary arbitration, and made $6.8 million in 2003. Freddy has been at the center of a number of trade rumors in the last year, and may be traded in the offseason. The Mariners do not want to spend too much on him, as they have a slew of young talent in the minors to replace him, including Julio Mateo and Rafael Soriano, both of whom may be eligible for promotion to the rotation if Garcia leaves. The bullpen is also a question mark; Shigetoshi Hasegawa and Arthur Rhodes are both free agents, and either of them may leave to other teams. Again, the M's are likely to fill bullpen holes from within the farm system, but they may look for bullpen help in the free agent market if they can't sign Rhodes and Hasegawa.

This concludes my first entry in the MarinersWeekly Weblog. For those who may have stumbled upon my humble abode, look for my thoughts on the Mariners every week. Thanks for reading.